IEA Raises Global Oil Supply Projections

The International Energy Agency once again has lifted its forecasts for global oil supply this year and next. 

The IEA on Wednesday now sees global oil supply growth of 2.5 million barrels per day (B/D) this year, up by 370,000 b/d from last month’s forecast, and 1.9 million b/d in 2026, up by 620,000 b/d.

The upward revision was made “after the eight OPEC+ members subject to voluntary output reductions agreed on 3 August to raise production by another 547 kb/d in September, fully unwinding the 2.2 mb/d cuts agreed to in November 2023 since April,” the agency wrote.

Meanwhile, “global oil demand growth for 2025 has been repeatedly downgraded since the start of the year, by a combined 350 kb/d,” the IEA wrote. “Demand is now projected to rise by around 700 kb/d this year and next. The latest data show lacklustre demand across the major economies and, with consumer confidence still depressed, a sharp rebound appears remote.”

The IEA added that “while oil market balances look ever more bloated as forecast supply far eclipses demand towards year-end and in 2026, additional sanctions on Russia and Iran may curb supplies from the world’s third and fifth largest producers.”

Crude oil futures were down 0.7% at around $62.75 a barrel in recent trading.